COMPLEXIS 2023 Abstracts

Area 1 - Complexity in Biology and Biomedical Engineering

Short Papers

Paper Nr:	12
Title:	Forecasting of COVID-19 Pandemic Using ARIMA and Fb-Prophet Models: UK Case Study
Authors:	Victor Chang, Oghara E. Akpomedaye, Vitor Jesus, Qianwen A. Xu, Karl Hall and Meghana A. Ganatra
Abstract:	This study aims to provide insights into predicting future cases of COVID-19 infection and rates of virus transmission in the UK by critically analyzing and visualizing historical COVID-19 data, so that healthcare providers can prepare ahead of time. In order to achieve this goal, the study invested in the existing studies and selected ARIMA and Fb-Prophet time series models as the methods to predict confirmed and death cases in the following year. In a comparison of both models using values of their evaluation metrics, root-mean-square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error show that ARIMA performs better than Fb-Prophet. The study also discusses the reasons for the dramatic spike in mortality and the large drop in deaths shown in the results, contributing to the literature on health analytics and COVID-19 by validating the results of related studies.
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Area 2 - Complexity in Social Sciences

Full Papers

Paper Nr:	2
Title:	Tuning of the Update Timing Will Stop the Defector Invasion in the Spatial Game Theory
Authors:	Akihiro Takahara and Tomoko Sakiyama
Abstract:	Since the defectors tend to survive in the Spatial prisoner’s dilemma, many studies have proposed models for the purpose of survivals of cooperators. But many of those models are not realistic. Therefore, in this study, we proposed a model that considered the player’s decision-making time based on previous research. In the proposed model, the defectors decrease the probability of the strategy update while the cooperators increase the probability of the strategy update. In this paper, we investigate the defector density and the spatial distribution by setting two different system sizes: 50×50 and 200×200. Since the results were very similar to each system size, we found that the proposal model was not affected by the system size. Furthermore, ever if the payoff parameter regarding a defector vs. a cooperator increased, the defector density did not increase rapidly, which was against the conventional model. We compared the spatial distribution of the proposal model with the conventional model and found that cooperators were widely maintained in the proposal model while they were partially maintained in the conventional model. Thus, the proposed model that introduces decision-making times of players is a realistic model and contributes to the survival of cooperators.
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Paper Nr:	9
Title:	Mainstream and Alternative Narratives in the Wake of Gun Shootings
Authors:	Lisa Grobelscheg, Ema Kušen and Mark Strembeck
Abstract:	In this paper, we explore narratives that emerge in the Twitter discourse during high stakes, low probability events. In particular, we analyze 7.4 million tweets related to four shooting events in the United States of America to identify differences that arise in the semantic structure and message diffusion of mainstream narratives on the one hand and alternative narratives on the other. Our findings indicate that alternative narratives introduce keyterms that have little to no connection to the respective shooting itself and that their diffusion patterns similar to those of mainstream narratives. Moreover, we found empirical evidence of alternative narratives, such as false flag accusations, that appear across different events and persist in the Twitter-sphere over an extensive period of time.
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Paper Nr:	11
Title:	An Analysis of Twitter Communities Related to the 2022 War in Ukraine
Authors:	Karolina Sliwa, Ema Kušen and Mark Strembeck
Abstract:	In this paper, we analyze a dataset including more than 189 million tweets related to the first month of the 2022 war in Ukraine. Our analysis especially focuses on communities of Twitter users and their collective behavior. In particular, we applied the InfoMap community detection algorithm and found on average 44079.63 communities of Twitter users per day. Our behavioral analysis especially focuses on the five largest daily communities (i.e. the communities that have been detected for each day during the first month of the war). We found that: 1) hashtags played an essential role in framing conversations, 2) communities often publicly called on international organizations or offices such as @potus, @NATO, or @UN to aid in conflict resolution, 3) anger was the dominant emotion in all communities and 4) negative tweets spread wider than the positive ones.
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Short Papers

Paper Nr:	3
Title:	A Case Study of Genealogical Networks from Network Science Perspective
Authors:	Imre Varga
Abstract:	In this paper, the analysis of a genealogical network is presented. The source database was constructed from the records of birth, marriage and death registers of a medium-sized Hungarian town covering some centuries. This genealogical network contains ca. 100.000 individuals. The topological features of this acyclic directed graph were analyzed by computer software in order to draw conclusions about the community. The results illustrate how network science can help the social sciences. A new measure is also defined to quantify the degree of pedigree collapse of a person having a partially known ancestor graph. The network was analyzed from the point of view of this ancestor-loss coefficient.
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Paper Nr:	8
Title:	The Correlation Between Media Consumption and Loneliness: The Case of Young People in Portugal
Authors:	Catarina Feio, Lídia Oliveira and José M. Martins
Abstract:	Currently, digital media allows individuals to be constantly connected, however, physical interpersonal relationships and interactions that are not mediated by digital platforms are increasingly rare. This generates worrisome levels of loneliness and social alienation, especially in young people who have grown up in a digital world. To understand whether there is a relationship between media consumption and loneliness amongst young people in Portugal, this study statistically relates these two variables. The investigation used a sample of 337 participants and the data was collected through a survey built in two parts, one with the UCLA Loneliness Scale and another with media consumption habits. The investigation outcomes show that young people mostly carry out their media consumption in the new media and that it is on social media that they spend more time daily. It also allows us to conclude that young people who spend more time daily streaming and gaming online have a higher rate of loneliness. Positive and negative relationships are also identified between the rate of loneliness of young people and the habits they tend to practice when they feel lonely or bored.
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Paper Nr:	4
Title:	Structural Analysis of the Curriculum Through a Bipartite Network
Authors:	Durdica Vukic, Alen Jakupovic and Sanja Candrlic
Abstract:	Investigation of curriculum elements in terms of knowledge content organisation can be based on two entities that support the process of knowledge acquisition: concepts and learning outcomes. Motivated by this structure of knowledge organisation, we construct curriculum knowledge content as a bipartite network of concepts and learning outcomes. Furthermore, we examine the applicability of centrality estimates in detecting key knowledge entities of curriculum content as well as possibilities to rethink the knowledge organisation and teaching. Results have shown that centrality analysis is particularly suitable for identifying concepts and learning outcomes that are key landmarks for managing cognitive load and improving learning retention.
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Paper Nr:	16
Title:	International Economic Integration from the Perspective of Economic Complexity and Economic Fitness: A Methodological Proposal
Authors:	Arturo González, Sanny González, Gabriel Pereira, Gerardo Blanco and Christian von Lücken
Abstract:	International Economic Integration can be described as a process in which a group of countries seeks mutual benefits through mechanisms such as the elimination and/or reduction of trade, social, and political barriers between others. From an economic point of view, the importance of the integration of countries is fundamental for their development simply because most of them are part of some system of international economic integration. In this work, the issue of economic integration will not be discussed in depth but instead will oversee proposing some well-known metrics in the field of economic development that could be very useful as analysis and decision-making tools. in the process of regional economic integration. In this sense, this work proposes using concepts and metrics of Economic Complexity and Economic Fitness to identify combined productive capacities between countries that are part of an economic block, whether real or fictitious. The problem in understanding how economically integrate the countries is to identify the combined productive capacities that would exist if two or more countries that make up an economic block are considered as a single country. Experimental analyzes were carried out for a fictitious case, where a world with 10 countries and 15 products is presented; in addition, 3 economic blocks were defined, which were analyzed applying economic complexity and economic fitness metrics. The results obtained reflect the great importance of economic integration since, by establishing economic blocks, it is possible to capture more productive capacities by improving both the diversity of the economic block and the ubiquity of the products produced in it by addressing the productive capacities of the member countries.
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Area 3 - Complexity in AI/Edge/Fog/High-Performance Computing

Short Papers

Paper Nr:	1
Title:	Abstraction of Prevention Conceived in Distributed Knowledge Base
Authors:	Susumu Yamasaki and Mariko Sasakura
Abstract:	This paper is concerned with prevented information common in distributed knowledge base. The distributed knowledge is a framework to reflect knowledge acquisition and retrieval in a seminar class with participants. The presented accounts are listened to, by participants such that the participants may acquire knowledge. To make the acquired knowledge formal, it is restricted to rule-type and assumed as logically causal or algebraically structural. For such formalized knowledge, the meaning of knowledge may be considered by a consistent fixed point of the mapping associated with knowledge rules. The fixed point approach has complexity if the mapping is nonmonotonic (not monotonic), because the fixed point is not always available for the mapping. In this paper, we face such complexity caused by the nonmonotonic mapping which is reasonable from interactions between positive and negative informations in acquiring knowledge. With the assumption of some consistent fixed point existence, retrieval derivation to the ruled knowledge is inductively designed such that it may be sound with respect to the fixed point meaning of knowledge. The derivation adopts negation by failure, making adjustments between succeeding and failing cases, inherently involved in acquired knowledge. As regards the whole system in accordance with the seminar class, distributed knowledge base is formalized by taking a direct product of knowledge regarded as acquired by each participant. To make complexity of mutually interactive communications simpler and to possibly formulate common prevention conceived in the distributed knowledge base, we present a mapping associated with distributed knowledge base containing common negatives. Then the meaning of the whole system with common prevention information may be theoretically defined by a consistent fixed point of a mapping. A consistent fixed point of the mapping does not always exist, however, if it is definable, retrieval derivation in distributed knowledge base may be designed with an oracle of assumed prevention information in such a distributed knowledge base.
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Area 4 - Complexity in Informatics and Networking

Short Papers

Paper Nr:	13
Title:	Examining the Intra-Location Differences Among Twitter Samples
Authors:	Rositsa V. Ivanova, Ema Kušen and Stefan Sobernig
Abstract:	In this paper, we explore Twitter data samples collected from five different geographical locations. For each of these geographical locations, we compare variations occurring within samples collected simultaneously from two different machines running Twitter API clients. In addition, we split the collected data samples into “complete” and “incomplete” datasets. An incomplete dataset is a collection of Twitter messages where at least one machine received a smaller data sample due to some interruption. A complete dataset is one that includes all tweets that Twitter’s API delivers for a particular set of search parameters. Our findings indicate that 86% of the complete samples show some variations in the attribute values attached to extracted tweets. While the complete datasets show comparable attribute values and network characteristics, the incomplete data samples exhibit substantial differences. We arrive at recommendations for researchers on Online Social Networks on how to mine Twitter data while mitigating these risks.
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Area 5 - Complexity in Risk and Predictive Modeling

Short Papers

Paper Nr:	6
Title:	ALARP in Engineering: Risk Based Design and CBA
Authors:	Emin Alakbarli, Mohammad Mehdi Hamedanian and Massimo Guarascio
Abstract:	It has not been far, over a century, since humankind conceived that hazardous incidents should be substantially managed to procrastinate the future could-be hazards. In the middle of the twentieth century, nonetheless, safety measures were passed by officials and introduced to authorities, and private sectors, so as to reduce risks, environmental impacts of the hazards and to evaluate probable outcomes. Therefore, the concept of ALARP, meaning ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ presented back then, has been implemented in risk reduction management to make decisions upon acceptability and tolerability of risks. In order to do so, a few so-called tools, such as Cost-Benefit Analysis, are specified to societal and other types of risks so that we could weigh the balance of the amount of capital to be invested on safety on the one hand, and the extracted benefit attained out of the investment on the other. This implementation opaquely carries on several social, socio-economic, political and even environmental implications. Nevertheless, it has brought up some concerns into proponents’ mindset, ranging from practicality and political reality to calling into question whether ALARP is mainly theoretical. The aim of this study is to figure out whether Cost-Benefit Analysis can be an appropriate tool to analyse the true outcome(s) of ALARP. This paper will offer a critical point of view over the risk-evaluating concept to discern how much it has been practically efficient.
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Paper Nr:	7
Title:	Exploring Potential Causal Models for Climate-Society-Conflict Interaction
Authors:	Weisi Guo, Schyler Sun and Alan Wilson
Abstract:	Climate change affects human liveability and may increase the likelihood of armed violence. However, the precise repercussions on social cohesion and conflict are difficult to model, and several socio-economic mechanisms exist between local climate changes and conflict, and are often hidden to us. Nonetheless, we offer an exploratory data analysis in this paper at a global scale, on the relationship between diverse climate indicators and conflict. Here we investigate potential basic causal models between climate change and conflict, including the causal direction, causal lag, and causal strength. We use historical climate and extreme environmental event data from the past 50 years across the world to identify geographic region-specific causal indicators. The initial broad findings are: (1) rainfall is a reasonably general indicator of conflict, (2) there are fragile regions which exhibit a strong causal link between extreme climate variations and conflict (predominantly in Africa and South Asia), and 3. there exists a common time lag of the causality between the climate variations and the conflict in many regions, which is worth further study.
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Paper Nr:	15
Title:	The Transition from Kanban to Scrum and Risk Prevention in Big Telco Corporation
Authors:	Dragan Stankovski
Abstract:	One of the biggest challenges to driving and managing projects in a big telco corporation is to define the right approach and moment of switching from Kanban to Scrum modelling and way of working. Unfortunately, in the real world, this slim line by some rules basically is ignored or established at a very late stage. There is no clear definition and exact power to be pointed out and used while projects are running. The aim of this paper is to give basic rules and advanced directions to find them including the right moment establishment without any impacts on the work and the project itself. A clear definition of this approach will ensure a smooth transition in full transparency in the already established agile culture and project execution.
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